The Numbers That Decide It: Colorado vs. Georgia Tech, Broken Down

Bobby Dodd Stadium, eight o’clock. Two teams. Two questions nobody outside a PFF login can actually answer yet.

Georgia Tech trusts a line that’s played real snaps together. Colorado is betting a game plan on two transfer pass rushers who never faced a Power-conference tackle until tonight. Both trusts are backed by numbers. Neither trust has been tested at this level. That’s the whole night, right there.

All figures sourced from PFF, verified September 3, 2026. Alberto Mendoza and Justice Haynes shown on their 2025 production at their prior schools.

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The Quarterbacks Nobody’s Seen Enough Of

Julian Lewis started twice for Colorado last season and, by PFF’s grading, protected the football about as well as a first-year starter can — a 1.7 percent turnover-worthy-play rate and zero interceptions across 96 attempts. His completion percentage actually climbed from 67 to 69 percent when the pocket collapsed, even as his yards per attempt dropped. He didn’t panic. He just got conservative.

Alberto Mendoza’s Indiana tape is the louder story — 18-of-24, 286 yards, five touchdowns, an 83 percent adjusted completion rate — on 25 dropbacks. Remember that number. Not a résumé. A flash.

	Julian Lewis (Colorado)	Alberto Mendoza (Georgia Tech)
2025 PFF Passing Grade	71.4	69.6
Adjusted Completion %	67.4%	83.3%
TD / INT	4 / 0	5 / 1
Sample Size	96 att, 118 dropbacks	18-of-24, 25 dropbacks (small sample)

Georgia Tech’s key to victory tonight is straightforward: let its tackles play the way their grades say they can, get Mendoza through his first road start clean, and let Haynes create the rest. Colorado’s is just as clear — turn Lester and Anene’s FCS production into Power-level pressure immediately, and get its new linebacker room tackling clean before Haynes finds his rhythm.

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The Trench Matchup With Real Data Behind It

Ethan Mackenny and Malachi Carney both carry pass-block grades in the low-to-mid 70s on well over 350 snaps each — a proven sample, not a projection. Across from them, Colorado didn’t patch its pass rush, it imported production: Lamont Lester Jr. won 21.5 percent of his pass-rush snaps at Monmouth last year, Toby Anene won 17 percent at North Dakota State. Nine sacks and seven sacks, respectively — real numbers, at a level below the one they’re stepping into tonight.

Georgia Tech Tackles	PFF Pass-Block Grade		Colorado Edge Duo	2025 Pass-Rush Win Rate
Ethan Mackenny	75.1 (370 snaps)	vs	Lamont Lester Jr. (Monmouth)	21.5% — 9 sacks
Malachi Carney	72.7 (387 snaps)	vs	Toby Anene (North Dakota State)	16.9% — 7 sacks

Worth saying plainly: Colorado’s own Week 1 notes list Lester and Anene in the front group without a locked two-man depth chart — call them the projected top edge duo, not confirmed starters. Georgia Tech trusts its tackles, but Colorado imported real pressure production.

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The Gap Between Grade And Yardage

Here’s the cross-reference nobody runs before kickoff. Georgia Tech’s offense graded 81.7 as a full unit last season. Its run-blocking grade, specifically, sat at a much less commanding 65.9. Justice Haynes is exactly the back that gap needed — at Michigan, 456 of his 857 rushing yards came after contact, a 3.77 yards-after-contact average, 23 forced missed tackles, an 87.2 elusive rating, 7.1 yards per carry overall. He doesn’t need a clean lane. He makes his own.

On the other side of the ball, Colorado’s defense graded 76.5 against the run — a genuinely strong number — while still allowing 223 rushing yards a game. Those two facts look contradictory sitting next to each other. They’re not. A grade measures how sound the football was played snap to snap. A yardage total measures what actually happened by the end of the drive.

	Georgia Tech Offense	Colorado Defense
Team Grade	81.7 overall	76.5 run-defense
The Number That Doesn’t Match	65.9 run-block grade	223 rush yds/game allowed

Georgia Tech’s run-blocking grade says its line won’t dominate — Justice Haynes doesn’t need it to.

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Colorado’s Rebuilt Linebacker Room

Behind that run-defense number is a linebacker room that’s almost entirely new. Gideon Lampron graded 86.6 at Bowling Green last year — the best number of any transfer on this defense, strong in both run defense and pass rush. Liona Lefau, in from Texas, graded well defending the run — 76.4 — but his coverage grade sits down at 46.9. That’s the matchup question: can Georgia Tech get him isolated in space? Tyler Martinez was the most balanced of the three — 73.2 tackling, 71.6 coverage.

Player	2025 School	PFF Read
Gideon Lampron	Bowling Green	86.6 overall — the centerpiece by grade
Liona Lefau	Texas	76.4 run-defense / 46.9 coverage
Tyler Martinez	New Mexico State	73.2 tackling / 71.6 coverage

None of them has taken a snap in this building, in this building’s noise, against this level of tackle.

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The Final Word

Georgia Tech won this exact matchup last year, 27-20, in this same stadium. Almost nobody on either sideline was here for that one.

Two proven pieces. Two imported ones. By the fourth quarter, the numbers will have an answer the projections don’t.

The pick: Georgia Tech, by a margin tighter than the current line — the proven-versus-new gap favors Tech, but Colorado bought too much real pass-rush production to get run off the field early. If Lester and Anene show up in the first quarter instead of the third, that number moves fast.

TLP will have the full breakdown up after the final whistle. All statistics sourced from PFF and official team rosters, verified September 3, 2026.