The First Real Room: TLP's Games Of The Week, Week 4

Eleven games. Eleven near-misses. One room.

That’s Week 4.

Every game on this page earned a TLP Watch Score (TWS). Every week, TLP reads the entire slate — Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. This week that meant 191 games: 69 in the FBS, 37 in the FCS, 28 in the HBCU ranks, and 57 in junior college. Each one is scored out of a hundred on four questions. How good are the two teams? How close should the game be? What is truly at stake? What is the story? A game has to earn a TLP Watch Score of 78 or better to make the board. Nobody gets in on a name; the TLP Watch Score is the only ticket. And the best of the best has to clear 82 to be in the running for the crown.

Junior college football has no published power rating, so that level is scored out of 50 on stakes, story, and what nobody else is covering, and the line there is 39.

Eleven games earned a place: four in junior college, two in the FCS, one HBCU game, three in the FBS, and the Marquee. Eleven more came within six points of the line and are listed at the end, because a week of football is bigger than the games the cameras chase.

Nothing that was played Thursday or Friday made the list this week, so everything below plays Saturday.

Start Where the Big Networks Never Look

Start where the big networks never look.

Saddleback at Chaffey

Last year, Saddleback beat Chaffey fifty-four to fourteen. A forty-point game. Saturday, No. 6 Saddleback, three and one, visits No. 12 Chaffey, four and oh, and Chaffey is the unbeaten home team.

The TLP Watch Score. Stakes, 16 of 20: ranked against ranked. Story, 15 of 15: a forty-point reversal, an unbeaten streak on the line. Coverage, 10 of 15: a ranked matchup with an unbeaten team and a reversal narrative the majors will not explain to you.

Saddleback’s Kerry Crabb is the head coach. Saddleback produced 407 yards in a 38–21 loss to Riverside, with quarterback Timmy Herr completing 17 of 30 for 245 yards, but two interceptions and four sacks allowed cost the team. Leonidas Bell, Elijah Ayala, and Jeremiah Watson each scored; Francisco Martinez and Parker Burckhardt combined for 134 receiving yards. Chaffey, under Ben Buys, put up 553 yards in a 33–25 win over El Camino — 318 passing, 235 rushing at 6.9 yards a carry. Quarterback Frankie Villabazo was 22 of 34 for 314 yards and two touchdowns; Trashaun James-Reek ran for 86 yards and a score; Jeremy Lenore added 76; Nathan Enriquez caught seven passes for 109 yards; Julian Lofton-Lundy had 80 yards and two touchdowns. The hinge is whether Chaffey’s balanced explosives can push Saddleback into another turnover-heavy night, and whether Saddleback can clean up its protection.

Grigsby Field in Rancho Cucamonga has a listed capacity of 4,200. Saddleback’s trip is in state, no travel burden. About 90 degrees, a light southwest wind, and a 6 p.m. Pacific start. TLP’s lean is Chaffey, in a one-possession game. Watch the turnovers, Villabazo’s protection, and the first quarter. The official 3C2A card confirms the game and the time but posts no stream or live-stat link at this point.

San Diego Mesa at Southwestern

Two unbeaten teams, and one of them is walking out with a loss. No. 4 San Diego Mesa, four and oh, visits No. 8 Southwestern, four and oh, in the highest-ranked Southern California matchup on the board.

The TLP Watch Score. Stakes, 16 of 20: both ranked, both unbeaten. Story, 15 of 15: last year Southwestern beat Mesa forty to thirty-eight in overtime, so Mesa gets its reversal with an unbeaten record on the line. Coverage, 10 of 15: real stakes the majors are underplaying.

Gary Watkins’ Mesa is explosive but balanced: 501 yards in a 48–14 win over Palomar, 323 through the air, with a defensive touchdown. Quarterback Diesel Taylor was 23 of 35 for 276 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, and ran for a score; Alexander Villanueva and Samuel Marquez ran for 67 and 64 yards; Grady Woodward caught four passes for 76 yards and a touchdown, and Jayden Chanel had two for 73. Oscar Rodriguez Junior’s Southwestern is built on possession and depth: 384 yards, 204 on the ground, nine of 13 on third down, and 34:05 of possession in a 40–12 win over Mount San Jacinto. Quarterback Dominic Duran was 13 of 17 for 180 yards with no interceptions; Elias Johnson ran for two touchdowns, Jamar Johnson had 59 yards on 16 carries, and Caleb Blocker had 46 yards and a touchdown; defensive back Damarrion White returned an interception for a touchdown, and Ceejay Clavier and Rodney Ondari had sacks.

It is a chess match: Mesa wants explosives, Southwestern wants to win third down and keep the game slow, and turnovers and red-zone finishes decide whose script wins. DeVore Stadium in Chula Vista is Southwestern’s building, but Mesa’s trip is local within San Diego County. About 86 degrees with a light northwest wind, and a noon Pacific start, so heat management matters. TLP’s lean is San Diego Mesa, in a one-possession game. Live statistics are posted on the 3C2A card; no exact-game video link had appeared.

Diablo Valley at San Mateo

The champion, the challenger, and one loss that already happened. No. 2 Diablo Valley, four and oh, visits No. 3 San Mateo, three and one, the two highest-ranked Northern California teams in the poll.

The TLP Watch Score. Stakes, 16 of 20: ranked against ranked. Story, 15 of 15: San Mateo is the two-time defending champion, and last year it beat Diablo Valley thirty to twenty-four after building a 27–10 lead; now Diablo Valley is unbeaten and trying to prove its rise. Coverage, 15 of 15: a defending-champion program followed inside TLP’s junior college coverage, on an event card that offers association video and live statistics, not a national network.

San Mateo’s one loss was a four-overtime defeat to Sierra earlier in the month. Tim Tulloch’s team is built on pressure: in a 45–16 win over Modesto, San Mateo had nine sacks, a pick-six, a punt-return touchdown, and touchdowns on its first five possessions. Quarterback Austin Rovig was 12 of 16 for 137 yards; Dominick Gonzalez ran for 72 yards and two touchdowns; Jalen Arnold scored on a reception and a 55-yard punt return; Jadyn Hudson returned an interception for a touchdown. Jimmy Collins’ Diablo Valley is built on balance and ball control: 405 yards against Modesto, 212 rushing, 30 first downs, and seven of 11 on third down, then a 17–10 win over San Francisco after trailing 10–0. Quarterback Darius Clark-James was 17 of 33 for 245 yards with no interceptions and ran for the winning score; Jaden Beamon-Santos caught four passes for 128 yards; Martis Ferguson scored and caught three passes for 59; kicker Blayne Ballard hit the field goal.

The hinge: San Mateo’s pass rush and return units create short fields; Diablo Valley’s answer is long drives that keep both off the field. College Heights Stadium, about 67 degrees, almost no chance of rain, west-southwest wind at six to twelve miles an hour; Diablo Valley’s trip stays in Northern California. TLP’s lean is Diablo Valley, in a one-possession game. The 3C2A card posts live video and live-stat links.

Iowa Western at Hutchinson

Last December, Iowa Western beat Hutchinson twenty-eight to ten for the national championship. Hutchinson had gone undefeated through the regular season and was one win from the title. Saturday, number one Iowa Western, three and oh, walks into number two Hutchinson, four and oh, and the two teams that have held the top two spots in the national poll since the preseason play it again.

It scored the highest of the four junior college games. Why a perfect fifty? Stakes: twenty out of twenty, because it is number one against number two and a national championship game, run back. Story: fifteen out of fifteen, because Hutchinson’s whole season is a response. Coverage: fifteen out of fifteen, because junior college football is a level the majors do not touch. It passes the closeness test too, because both teams are nationally ranked. It is the fourteenth meeting between the programs, the fifth time they’ve met as number one against number two, and the fourth straight season they’ve done it. Eleven of the first thirteen meetings had both teams ranked.

The coaches. Hutchinson’s Drew Dallas is heading into the seventh season of a run that stands at 60 and 6 with two national titles. Scott Strohmeier leads the defending national champion.

How the teams play. Hutchinson’s identity is physical field control. In a seventy to nothing win over Garden City, the Blue Dragons ran for 415 yards, took the ball away three times, and gave up 101 yards. They beat Butler twenty-four to nothing, and beat Ellsworth seventy-six to three, when quarterback Randy Phillips threw a career-high four touchdown passes, three of them to Bobby Shaw the Third. Running back J.B. Price is the other name to know. Iowa Western’s identity is efficiency and opportunity. It opened with a seventy-one to nothing shutout of Highland, its biggest scoring night since the 2017 opener, with quarterback Maealiuaki Smith completing five of six passes for 135 yards and three touchdowns, including scores to Ty Christopher and Eli Ladu. Then it beat Dodge City thirty-one to nothing behind a ninety-nine-yard kickoff return from Ty Christopher, a thirty-eight-yard interception return from Javonte Walker, a thirty-six-yard run from Travon Pankey, a four-yard run from Ian Middleton, and a thirty-eight-yard field goal from kicker Henry Lounsbury. It finished with 259 yards — 172 rushing, 87 passing — and allowed 215. Two of its four touchdowns came from special teams and defense.

The matchup is field position and takeaways. Iowa Western creates points fast; Hutchinson has to make the Reivers drive the full field. And the home field matters: Gowans Stadium is where Hutchinson has spent a year waiting. Hutchinson won the KJCCC in 2025 and entered this season picked by league coaches to win a sixth straight conference title.

TLP’s lean is Iowa Western, by a narrow margin. It’s the reigning champion and the current number one, but Hutchinson gets the crowd and the motivation. Watch Hutchinson’s early response, and watch the turnovers.

South Dakota at Youngstown State

Two ranked teams, one conference opener, and a milestone hanging in the air.

The TLP Watch Score. Quality, 25 of 25: South Dakota is three and one and ranked as high as number eight in the FCS polls; Youngstown State is two and two and ranked as high as number eleven; in the power ratings they sit at number ten and number twenty among FCS teams. Closeness, 20 of 25: the models see a game of about five and a half points. Stakes, 16 of 20: a ranked Missouri Valley Conference opener for South Dakota, with playoff position starting to get built. Story, 15 of 15: South Dakota is chasing the hundredth FCS win in program history, in its first conference game, on the road. Coverage, 10 of 15: undercovered, not invisible.

First-year South Dakota head coach Matt Vitzthum has three wins, all against FCS opponents. Doug Phillips is in a seventh season at Youngstown State. South Dakota is explosive and pass-led: quarterback Austyn Modrzewski leads the FCS with fourteen touchdown passes and a 193.2 passer rating; the Coyotes have twenty-three plays of twenty yards or more, twelve of them for touchdowns. Receiver Tennel Bryant averages 36.4 yards a catch with three touchdowns. Running back Charles Pierre Junior has more than 2,000 career rushing yards. Linebacker Wade Abrams has 38 tackles. Youngstown State is built around quarterback Beau Brungard, a Missouri Valley and national player of the week after a record-setting game against Duquesne, with running back Tahir Mills, defensive back Cam Smith, linebacker Carston Marshall, and tight end Alex McDonald. Youngstown State is zero and one in the league after a loss at South Dakota State.

Youngstown State leads the series eight to four and is six and one at home against South Dakota. But the Coyotes have won the last two overall, including at Youngstown in 2024. Stambaugh Stadium holds about 20,630. TLP’s lean is South Dakota, in a close one. Watch the turnovers, the fourth-quarter line play, and whether Youngstown State turns its home possessions into points.

Montana at UC Davis

Two mirrors, one scoreboard.

Quality, 25 of 25: both teams are ranked in the top ten of the FCS polls — Montana fourth or fifth, UC Davis ninth or tenth. Closeness, 25 of 25: the models have this as a one-point game, one of the smallest gaps on the board. Stakes, 16 of 20: both teams are three and one and one and oh in the Big Sky, and Montana’s own preview calls it the FCS and Big Sky Games Of The Week, saying it will shape each team’s trajectory and postseason résumé. Story, 10 of 15: two teams picked in the top three of the league in the preseason, who have split their last two ranked meetings. Coverage, 10 of 15. It is one of three games that tied for the highest TLP Watch Score of the week.

The statistical mirror is the story. Montana has scored 125 points and allowed 97. UC Davis has scored 135 and allowed 104. Both have 83 first downs. Their passing totals differ by fewer than four yards a game.

Montana’s Bobby Kennedy has a balanced team, pass-led by yardage: 591 rushing yards and more than a thousand passing. Quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat has 1,008 passing yards, Eli Gillman has 409 rushing yards, and Brooks Davis has 446 receiving yards. The Grizzlies come in off a 52–17 loss at Oregon State, an FBS opponent. UC Davis’ Tim Plough is in a third season; the Aggies have 495 rushing yards and more than a thousand passing, and come in off a 45–7 win over Stetson in the home opener, in which quarterback Treynor Cleeland completed 26 of 27 passes for 331 yards and two touchdowns, Samuel Gbatu Junior caught ten passes for 172 yards, Jordan Fisher ran for 65 yards and a score, and Porter Connors made ten tackles.

Montana leads the series nine to two and won the last one at Davis, thirty-one to twenty-three in 2023; UC Davis won thirty to fourteen at Montana in 2024. UC Davis has won eleven straight home openers, though that is not a season-long home streak. TLP’s lean is Montana, by a field goal, in a low-confidence pick. Watch Gillman’s efficiency, Cleeland under pressure, and the first-quarter response.

Prairie View A&M vs. Grambling State

It cleared the line of 78 by one point, and it earned every one of them.

Quality, 15 of 25: the power ratings dated September 10 have Prairie View as the twenty-eighth-best team in the FCS, at a rating of 28.9, and Grambling as thirty-fifth, at 25.5 — model ranks, not poll ranks. Closeness, 20 of 25: on a neutral field, about a three-and-a-half-point game. Stakes, 14 of 20: a SWAC game involving the defending champion. Story, 15 of 15: this is the 101st State Fair Classic, and Grambling is responding to Prairie View’s 28–13 win in the 100th. Coverage, 15 of 15: an HBCU-versus-HBCU showcase. It is the only HBCU game on the slate to clear the line and pass the closeness test.

Prairie View is one and three overall and one and oh in the SWAC. Second-year head coach Tremaine Jackson, the 2025 SWAC Coach of the Year, has the defending conference champion. The schedule — Tarleton State, Baylor, Stephen F. Austin — bruised the record; the Panthers beat Texas Southern fifty-two to fourteen. They protect the football: quarterback Tevin Carter is 65 of 111 for 717 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Chase Bingmon, the 2025 SWAC Freshman of the Year, has three touchdowns; Rodny Ojo has 181 receiving yards. The team has 1,196 passing yards and 554 rushing, roughly 68 percent of its yardage through the air. The defense disrupts: three interceptions against Baylor, and Malachi Williams had three sacks against Texas Southern.

Grambling State is two and one under Mickey Joseph, with Jason Rollins coordinating the defense and Erik Losey the offensive line and run game. The Tigers average 447 yards and nearly 35 points, 201 on the ground and 246 through the air, convert 43.6 percent of third downs, and hold the ball for more than 32 minutes a game. Quarterback Reginald Johnson is 47 of 60 for 581 yards and two touchdowns; Byron Eaton Junior, Tony Phillips Junior, and D’Shaun Ford are the other names. But Grambling went two and oh against Clark Atlanta and Central State before a 63–7 loss at TCU, which distorts the defensive averages. Read the drives, not the averages.

The Cotton Bowl is neutral, so neither team gets a home-field edge, and special-teams errors and communication problems get amplified. It is going to be hot: mostly sunny, high near 95, heat index up to 97. TLP’s lean is Prairie View by one score. Watch Prairie View’s turnovers, Grambling’s yards per rush, the third-down possession battle, and which team handles the noise cleanly.

Oregon at USC

A coin flip between two ranked teams that play the game in different ways.

Quality, 25: SP+ has Oregon at number seven and USC at number seventeen. Closeness, 25: less than a one-point difference in the models. Stakes, 16: Oregon is ranked twentieth and USC twelfth in a ranked Big Ten game with early conference and Playoff positioning on the line. Story, 10: a West Coast power meeting with Oregon having won four straight. Coverage, 5: it’s on NBC.

USC’s Lincoln Riley has built quarterback-driven explosiveness. The Trojans are four and oh and one and oh in the Big Ten after a forty-two to thirty-five win at Rutgers. They average 43 points a game, 172 in total, and they have scored in all four quarters of every game they’ve played. They’re 19 for 24 in the red zone, 17 of those trips ending in touchdowns, and they made six plays of twenty yards or more at Rutgers. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has 1,173 passing yards, twelve touchdowns, and a 75.7 completion percentage; running back King Miller has 338 rushing yards and three touchdowns; freshman Trent Mosley is a receiver and returner to know; safety Christian Pierce had eleven tackles and an interception in the last game. PFF’s overall grades for USC have read 91.5, 90.2, and 89.8.

Dan Lanning’s Oregon emphasizes defensive structure and offensive balance, now under coordinator Chris Hampton. The Ducks are two and one — a thirty-four to twenty-seven win over Boise State, a thirty-nine to thirty-one loss at Oklahoma State, and an eighty-four to nothing win over Portland State. In the Oklahoma State loss Oregon allowed seven sacks, and PFF graded its pass blocking 48.2; against Portland State, the overall grade was 94.4. Quarterback Dante Moore has 849 yards, nine touchdowns, and a 68.5 completion percentage. Running back Jordon Davison, tight end Kenyon Sadiq, and freshman defensive back Jett Washington, who forced three turnovers against Portland State, round out the names to know.

The collision: USC’s pass rush graded 91.4 against Fresno State. Oregon’s protection graded 48.2 at Oklahoma State. Which Oregon shows up decides whether this is ugly or a track meet.

The building. USC is 480–151–27 in the Coliseum, excluding vacated results, and it’s a late-afternoon kick. Oregon is 9–0 in Big Ten road games since joining the league and 18–3 on the road under Lanning. USC leads the series 38–24–2, but Oregon has won four straight, including 42–27 last year. TLP’s lean is USC, narrowly, at home. Watch the explosive plays, the red-zone finishing, and the fourth quarter.

Ole Miss at Florida

Quality, 25: SP+ has Ole Miss at number twenty and Florida at number fifteen. Closeness, 25: about a two-point difference in the models. Stakes, 16: number four against number twenty-one, in the SEC, with conference and Playoff leverage on both sides. Story, 10: a first-year head coach on one side and a first true SEC road test for a head coach on the other. Coverage, 5: it’s on ABC.

Pete Golding’s Ole Miss is a defense-first team; across that tenure, Ole Miss defenses have allowed 18.5 points and 330.8 yards a game, with nearly three sacks and seven tackles for loss per game, and the first postseason run as head coach reached the College Football Playoff semifinal. Jon Sumrall, in a first year at Florida, had four conference title game appearances in the first four seasons as a head coach, and those teams produced 96 takeaways and 155 sacks over that stretch. Florida pairs that pressure-and-takeaway identity with Buster Faulkner’s motion-heavy offense: the Gators average 54.0 points and have 12 rushing touchdowns; running back Jadan Baugh has 458 rushing yards and eight scores. Florida beat Florida Atlantic sixty-six to twenty-one, Campbell fifty-two to three, and won forty-four to thirty-nine at Auburn, with PFF grades of 93.1, 94.9, and 78.7 — and a defensive grade of 64.3 against Auburn, which is why this game could be a shootout.

Ole Miss beat LSU thirty-two to twenty-four — the LSU coached by the man who built this Ole Miss program — with a passing game PFF graded 81.4. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has 924 passing yards, receiver Deuce Alexander has 295 receiving yards, and running back Kewan Lacy has 191 rushing yards and is questionable. Ole Miss prepared specifically for Florida’s shifts, motion, and edge rush. PFF’s overall grades for Ole Miss have been 67.0 in a 41–38 opener against Louisville, 89.9 against Charlotte, and 76.5 against LSU: three wins, and two of them not dominant.

Then the number that jumps off Thursday’s SEC report: Ole Miss lists nine players out, including three cornerbacks — Cedrick Beavers, Dorian Barney, and Victor Lincoln Junior — and two safeties, MJ Preston and Craig Tutt, plus linebackers Ant Davis Junior and JaMichael Garrett and offensive linemen Jalan Chapman and Emanuel Faulkner. PFF’s coverage grade for Ole Miss against LSU was 56.3, and its pass-block grade in that game was 44.6. Florida receiver Eric Singleton Junior is questionable; no Florida player is listed out.

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is the pressure variable: crowd communication and Ole Miss’s first true road-SEC sequence matter more than any generic Swamp magic. The series is tied 13–13–1. Ole Miss is 9–6–1 in Gainesville and won last year, 34–24; Florida has won six of the last ten. TLP’s lean is Ole Miss, in a close road game, pending final availability. Watch Chambliss’s decisions, Ole Miss’s wideouts, Florida’s pass rush — and how many of those missing defensive backs are actually missing.

Oklahoma at Georgia

An offense that scores fifty-nine, a defense that allows seven, and only one of them gets to be right.

Quality, 25: Georgia is number two in SP+ and Oklahoma number ten. Closeness, 20: about a four-and-a-half-point game. Stakes, 16: direct SEC and Playoff leverage. Story, 15: the programs’ first campus meeting after the 2018 Rose Bowl. Coverage, 5: it’s on ESPN.

Kirby Smart’s Georgia is built on balance and defensive depth: 59.3 points and 539 yards a game, 253 on the ground and 286 through the air, while allowing 13.3 points. Sixty-three to three over Tennessee State. Seventy to twenty over Western Kentucky. Forty-five to seventeen over Arkansas. A hundred seventy-eight points in three games, PFF overall grades of 98.0, 91.7, and 89.5, and run grades of 93.2, 77.1, and 88.2. The offense’s overall grades have been 95.2, 80.1, and 89.7; the defense has graded 92.1, 81.7, and 70.4. Quarterback Gunner Stockton has 583 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and an 84.4 completion percentage; Nate Frazier, KJ Bolden, and Ellis Robinson are the other names.

Brent Venables’ Oklahoma is an aggressive, attacking defense built on tackles for loss and sacks. It has allowed 23 points in three games, 7.7 a game, fourth in the country according to Georgia’s preview: a fifty-one to nothing shutout of UTEP, a seventeen to ten loss to Michigan in which the offense came apart, and a fourteen to six win over New Mexico. Oklahoma’s overall grades were 91.0 against UTEP, 56.7 against Michigan, and 70.5 against New Mexico, with defensive grades of 75.8, 66.1, and 73.1. The offense graded 81.9, 49.4, and 64.1 in those games, with a pass-block grade of 30.8 against Michigan. Quarterback John Mateer has 652 passing yards; Lloyd Avant has 141 rushing yards; Isaiah Sategna the Third has 186 receiving yards.

The collision: Mateer’s ability to scramble against Georgia’s pursuit — PFF tackling grades of 88.7, 76.7, and 85.3 — and a crack in Georgia’s own foundation: its pass-rush grade has slid from 90.8 to 64.3 to 56.9, and its pass-block grade against Arkansas was 54.1. Georgia lists outside linebackers Amaris Williams and Chase Linton, safety Tyriq Green, and lineman Marcus Harrison out; Frazier, receiver Isiah Canion, and defensive back Justice Fitzpatrick are questionable. Oklahoma lists receivers Jer’Michael Carter and Trell Harris, linebackers Taylor Heim and Cole Sullivan, defensive back Michael Boganowski, and lineman Michael Fasusi out; lineman David Stone is questionable and linebacker Kip Lewis is probable.

Sanford Stadium seats 93,033. Georgia is 58–5 at home and 31–4 in home SEC games under Smart. TLP’s lean is Georgia, unless final availability changes the picture at quarterback or in the front seven. Watch whether Oklahoma’s defense can keep Georgia from turning this into a runaway.

The Honorable Mentions

Eleven games came within six points of the line and passed the closeness test. They didn’t make the board. Some of them are the reason to watch on a Saturday.

Junior college — 36 out of 50, three points under the line

Trinity Valley at Navarro. No. 7 against No. 9, a ranked rivalry in Corsicana, Texas, 3 p.m. Central at Community National Bank & Trust Stadium. Navarro earned its first road win, thirty-five to fourteen at Blinn after a tied first half, with Deyon Batiste, Josiah Bushnell, and Braylen Harris scoring; Trinity Valley beat Snow thirty-nine to thirty with a fourth-quarter surge. Ball security after halftime is the pressure point. Navarro’s official schedule is the access hub; exact stream entitlement needs a release-day check.

Tyler at Snow. No. 14 Snow gets a home response against No. 8 Tyler, 7 p.m. Mountain at Terry Foote Stadium in Ephraim, Utah. Snow led No. 7 Trinity Valley 11–0, gained more than 400 yards, and still lost 39–30; quarterback Dylan Story was 20 of 39 for 186 yards and three touchdowns, and Louie Hamilton ran 11 times for 56 yards. Snow’s official preview posts video and live-stat access.

San Francisco at Sequoias. No. 17 against No. 21, both two and two, 11 a.m. Pacific at College of the Sequoias in Visalia. San Francisco is answering a 17–10 loss at Diablo Valley in which Lazaro Faraj-Washington ran for 119 yards and a touchdown; Sequoias beat San Jose 28–17 by scoring the final 14 points. The 3C2A card posts video and live stats.

Modesto at Butte. No. 5 Butte, three and one, just won 34–31 in overtime at Fresno; No. 14 Modesto, a recent No. 1, has lost 31–24 to Diablo Valley and 45–16 at San Mateo. Bryson Davis had 90 receiving yards and a touchdown in the San Mateo loss. 1 p.m. Pacific at Butte College; the card posts audio, video, and live statistics.

Sierra at De Anza. No. 11 Sierra beat two-time defending champion San Mateo in four overtimes earlier this month, with receiver Mikey Cunningham central to that win; now it visits No. 24 De Anza, two and two, 1 p.m. Pacific in Cupertino. The card posts video, live statistics, and a preview link.

Pasadena City at Bakersfield. No. 16 against No. 22, 6 p.m. Pacific at Bakersfield Memorial Stadium, which Bakersfield calls High School Night. Bakersfield has lost 21–13 to Ventura and 21–7 at Golden West, though its defense held Golden West to 21; the offense needs to improve on seven points. The card posts a video link.

FCS — 74

Western Carolina at East Tennessee State. The Blue Ridge Border Battle, a Southern Conference matchup, Family Weekend, Faith Day, and a Gold Out, at Bank of Tennessee Field at William B. Greene Jr. Stadium. ETSU opened its hillside because fewer than five reserved seats were left. Western Carolina is two and two, averaging 33.0 points and 433.8 yards; quarterback Lex Thomas is 99 of 144 for 1,079 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions; Josh Perry has 198 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, A.J. Colombo has 262 receiving yards, and Jai Boyd has three receiving touchdowns. A pass-led, efficient profile, but the defense has allowed 457.8 yards and 31.3 points a game. ETSU beat West Georgia 35–27, with a school-record 88-yard touchdown from Brandon Winton; quarterback Mason Mims, running back Jason Albritton, and defenders Jivon Oggs and Ayden Guess, who made the late fourth-down stop, are the names to know. A one-point game by the models. Mostly sunny near 73, north wind 0–5 mph, near 45 that night. 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and WXSM 640.

UAlbany at Princeton. The programs have never met, and it’s Princeton’s home opener at Princeton Stadium. Tom Perkovich’s UAlbany is two and two: it beat New Hampshire, lost 21–17 to FBS Buffalo, and lost 28–20 to Monmouth, where Rahshan La Mons ran for 86 yards, Joey Koch for 50, quarterback Kai Colón threw for 139 with Matthew Iuvara catching the touchdown, and the defense intercepted two passes. Bob Surace is in a 16th season at Princeton with 84 wins and four Ivy titles; running back Ethan Clark had 594 yards and six touchdowns in 2025, Josh Robinson set Princeton freshman records with 46 catches for 569 yards, linebacker Chase Christopher has 152 career tackles, and veteran defensive backs Torian Roberts and Evan Haynie anchor the back end. The models have it at four-tenths of a point. The weather may steal the show: an 80 percent chance of rain, wind near 20 miles an hour with gusts to 40, and rain that night near 53. 3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia and SNY.

FBS

TCU at UCF — 74. A Big 12 opener in Orlando. TCU’s first trip to UCF and only the second meeting; in 2024, UCF erased a 21-point deficit to win 35–34. TCU, under Sonny Dykes with offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis, is two and one: Harvard transfer Jaden Craig has 903 passing yards, the Big 12 leader; Jeremy Payne has 307 rushing yards and Ed Small has 330 receiving yards; and the defense has allowed only 29 points in three games. Scott Frost’s UCF scored 24 second-half points to beat Georgia State 44–30, with Duke Watson’s 63-yard run flipping the game. Watson and Landen Chambers run for 228 a game, tight end Dylan Wade is the returning receiving-touchdown leader, and defensive back Demari Henderson had a two-interception fourth quarter. The style question is TCU’s efficient passing against UCF’s high-variance tempo and explosive run game. Why it fell short: neither team reaches the top quality band. The models have it under two points. 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1 at the Bounce House; UCF radio on FM 96.9 and AM 740, with Spanish radio through UCFKnights.com and UCF’s YouTube channel. Sunny near 84, north wind 5–10 mph, clear near 64 that night.

Missouri at Mississippi State — 76. Two points short. Both teams are three and oh and ranked. Missouri, under Eli Drinkwitz with Chip Lindsey coordinating the offense, is chasing a fourth straight SEC-opening win; Mississippi State, under Jeff Lebby, an offense-driven play caller, has not started 3–0 since 2017. Kamario Taylor has 1,010 total yards and twelve touchdowns, and Fluff Bothwell is running for nearly 100 a game. Missouri’s Donovan Olugbode (16 catches, 259 yards, four touchdowns) and Cayden Lee (16 catches, 256 yards, two touchdowns) lead the receivers; linebacker Nicholas Rodriguez has 26 tackles and safety Santana Banner had a 16-tackle game. Mississippi State’s defense held Minnesota without an offensive touchdown. Missouri leads the series 4–2 and won last year 49–27, but is missing running backs Malae Fonoti and Ahmad Hardy; Mississippi State is missing receiver Ayden Williams. Heavy national coverage and a strong-but-not-singular story held it two points under. 6:45 p.m. CT on SEC Network; mostly sunny near 86, NNW wind 0–5 mph, near 61 that night.

Texas A&M at LSU — 76. Two points short. Mike Elko, a defense-centered coach, is 2–0 against LSU, and Lane Kiffin, an offense-first coach, is 3–0 against Texas A&M; they have never faced each other, and the last ten meetings between the schools are 5–5. Both teams are coming off losses. LSU’s Sam Leavitt has 732 passing yards, 198 rushing yards, and six rushing touchdowns; Dilin Jones has 285 rushing yards, Winston Watkins Jr. has 15 catches, and tight end Trey’Dez Green, the team leader with 222 receiving yards, is out, along with safety Dashawn Spears and receiver Phillip Wright III. Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed is playing a first road game of 2026, with receiver Isaiah Horton (three receiving touchdowns), Mario Craver (an 11-catch, 119-yard game), and freshman running back Carsyn Baker (two rushing touchdowns on 10 carries); receiver Terry Bussey is out. LSU converts 56 percent on third down; the Aggie defense allows 23 percent. 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, with the Texas A&M radio network, SiriusXM 113 and 229, and a regional Spanish broadcast; mostly sunny near 91.

And now, the one.

The Marquee Game

Texas at Tennessee

86/100TWS · Marquee

25/25Quality

20/25Closeness

16/20Stakes

15/15Story

10/15Coverage

The Marquee is an FBS game — a game viewers can find on national television or a major streaming platform — and it has to clear 82 out of 100. Four FBS games made the board. Oregon at USC, Ole Miss at Florida, and Oklahoma at Georgia each scored 81. Texas at Tennessee scored 86, the highest of any FBS game this week. Two FCS games also scored 86 and earned full segments on this page, but the crown goes to a game every reader can find: the number one team in the country on the road, in the SEC, against a ranked, unbeaten opponent, in a building that is about to sell out for the thirtieth straight time.

The TLP Watch Score. Quality, 25 of 25: SP+ has Texas at number four and Tennessee at number twelve. Closeness, 20 of 25: the models see about a five-and-a-half-point game. Stakes, 16 of 20: two top-fifteen teams, in the SEC, with conference and Playoff leverage. Story, 15 of 15: the first regular-season meeting between these programs, and Texas’ first true road test in the SEC. Coverage, 10 of 15: heavily covered, but the road-environment angle earns more than the floor.

Compare it with the rest of the board. Oregon at USC is a coin flip in the Coliseum. Ole Miss at Florida is a number four against a number twenty-one in the Swamp. Oklahoma at Georgia puts one of the stingiest defenses in football in front of the number two team in the country. Four junior college games, a title rematch among them. Two FCS conference games. The State Fair Classic. Every one earned its place. But only one puts the number one team on the road in the SEC.

Texas has looked ready for the SEC. Fifty-nine to seven over Texas State. Then twenty-four to twenty-three over Ohio State, one point against one of the best teams in the country. Then thirty to six over UTSA. Tennessee has looked ready for company: fifty-six to nine over Furman, forty-five to twenty-four over Georgia Tech, forty-two to nine over Kennesaw State. Saturday, at noon Eastern, Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns walk into Neyland Stadium for their first true road test in the SEC. Tennessee calls it a Checker Neyland game. It will be the thirtieth consecutive sellout in that stadium. The Longhorns’ body clocks will say eleven in the morning.

This is the first real room.

For Texas, a road win is national authority and SEC authority in one afternoon. For Tennessee, it is the SEC opener and a chance to turn a perfect start into a Playoff-level statement. The loser doesn’t fall out of the race. The winner gets a story that follows them all season.

The coaches. Sarkisian’s Texas is balanced and explosive — 37.7 points and 417.3 yards a game, a 56.25 percent third-down conversion rate, and just 287.7 yards allowed. Its defensive identity is front pressure, gap integrity, and limiting explosive plays. Josh Heupel’s Tennessee is up-tempo and vertical, with Faizon Brandon throwing and DeSean Bishop running as a real complement, and a defense built on pressure and twist games. Two different offensive fingerprints, and two defenses that both want to get after the quarterback.

PFF’s team grades show how these two have played. Texas’s overall grades are 91.4 against Texas State, 70.4 against Ohio State, and 89.6 against UTSA, with defensive grades of 79.5, 66.7, and 88.3. Tennessee’s overall grades are 88.1 against Furman, 73.8 against Georgia Tech, and 86.1 against Kennesaw State, with defensive grades of 82.4, 71.3, and 75.3. Two teams that have been very good, and that have each had one game that wasn’t.

Here’s what the game asks.

Somebody’s Slide Stops

It asks whether Texas’s vertical passing game can survive Tennessee’s coverage — and whether Tennessee’s coverage can survive Texas’s. Tennessee’s own preview names Texas’s vertical receiving threat as the stress point. And both sides are trending the wrong way. Tennessee’s PFF coverage grades have fallen every week — 86.8 against Furman, 75.4 against Georgia Tech, 66.9 against Kennesaw State. Texas’s passing grade has fallen, too — 91.3 against Texas State, 75.5 against Ohio State, 57.5 against UTSA. Somebody’s slide stops on Saturday. Tennessee’s corners, Ty Redmond and Kayin Lee, will be tested on the outside all afternoon.

Steady Meets Steady

It asks whether Texas’s protection can outlast Tennessee’s pressure. Texas’s PFF pass-block grades are 91.0 against Texas State, 89.9 against Ohio State, and 85.3 against UTSA — elite, and steady against an Ohio State front. Tennessee’s pass-rush grades have been steady, too: 75.9, 74.6, 74.3. Tennessee’s pressure and twist games are the next test.

Can Tennessee Run?

It asks whether Tennessee can run. Tennessee’s PFF run grade was 83.4 against Georgia Tech, and its run-block grade was 88.9 against Kennesaw State. Heupel praised Texas’s front this week for its pressure, its gap integrity, and its ability to limit explosive plays, and Texas’s run-defense grades bear that out — 88.4, 73.4 against Ohio State, and 84.1. It is also the first conference front seven Tennessee’s offensive line has faced.

The Numbers That Go Loudest

And it asks about the two things the grades cannot measure: red-zone finishing and turnover margin. In a game this close, those two answers go last, and they go loudest.

The Players Who Matter

The players who matter. For Texas: quarterback Arch Manning, with 661 passing yards; receivers Cam Coleman, with 178 receiving yards, and Ryan Wingo; and running back Hollywood Smothers, with 198 rushing yards, if cleared. Smothers is questionable on Thursday’s official SEC report, and that may be the most important status check of the weekend. For Tennessee: quarterback Faizon Brandon, with 552 passing yards; running back DeSean Bishop, with 286 rushing yards; receiver Mike Matthews, with 189 receiving yards; and the corners, Ty Redmond and Kayin Lee, who have to hold up on an island.

Who Actually Takes the Field?

The rest of Thursday’s report: Texas lists defensive lineman Justus Terry, defensive back Xavier Filsaime, offensive lineman Jordan Coleman, and tight end Nick Townsend out. Tennessee lists tight end Ethan Davis, receiver Joakim Dodson, linebacker Jaedon Harmon, and defensive backs Edrees Farooq and Dylan Lewis out, with running back Javin Gordon and defensive lineman Nathan Robinson questionable. It updates Friday, and again ninety minutes before kickoff. Two Tennessee defensive backs out deepens the outside-coverage question.

The Room Is Part of the Matchup

The room itself is part of the matchup. Neyland’s thirtieth consecutive sellout is not scenery. It is cadence, communication, and early-down calls — football variables — in a road environment Texas has not faced in this conference.

Three Bowls, Then 57 Years

The history is short, and it’s old. This is the first regular-season meeting between these two programs. The three times they met before were all in the Cotton Bowl. Texas leads two to one, and the last was on January first, 1969 — Texas, thirty-six to thirteen.

TLP’s Call

TLP's Call

Texas

A competitive road game, decided by whether Tennessee can keep Texas from stretching the field. Real confidence, not a lock, and Hollywood Smothers's final status is the first thing that could change it.

Watch three things once it kicks off. Can Tennessee keep Texas from getting explosive plays on the outside? Does Texas force Tennessee into obvious passing downs? And who wins third down and the red zone? Those three answers tell you the whole afternoon.

The Last Word

Where, When, and How to Watch — This Week’s Slate

Times as published by the schools and networks. Availability notes marked “SEC report” come from the official Thursday, Sept. 24, 7:10 p.m. CT SEC availability report and update Friday and again 90 minutes before kickoff. No official free-trial offer was verified for any game.

Saturday, Sept. 26

Honorable Mentions

Broadcast, streaming, and radio details sourced from official team/conference releases, the SWAC’s ESPN schedule, the NCAA schedule, and the SEC’s official availability hub as of September 25, 2026; verify all entitlements before kickoff.

Harry B. and TLP use AI to research and assist in the publication of this article. AI makes mistakes, so please check for yourself.