Four Levels, Four Lines: TLP's Games Of The Week, Week 5

A hundred and sixty games. Four levels of football. One game at the top of each.

That’s Week 5.

Every week, TLP reads the whole slate, Thursday through Saturday, at every level of the sport. This week that meant 160 games: 58 in the FBS, 42 in the FCS, 28 in the HBCU ranks, and 32 in junior college. Each level is scored by its own measuring stick, because the levels are not built alike, and every game gets a TLP Watch Score (TWS) out of 100. The highest score at each level goes on the board. The next best at each level is an Honorable Mention, with two from the FBS. And one FBS game wears the crown.

Nothing that was played Thursday or Friday made the board, so everything below plays Saturday, Oct. 3, except one Honorable Mention that kicks off Friday night.

Start where the big networks never look.

Louisburg at Hudson Valley

The NJCAA Division III poll that came out Tuesday puts these two back to back: No. 2 Louisburg, from North Carolina, and No. 3 Hudson Valley, at HVCC Athletic Field in Troy, New York. Kickoff is 11 a.m. Eastern.

Hudson Valley is 5–0, and its own schedule confirms it. Louisburg is the honest part of the story. The poll lists the Hurricanes at 4–0. The school’s own Hudl page shows a loss on Sept. 19. TLP could not reconcile the two, so TLP is not calling Louisburg undefeated.

The TLP Watch Score: team quality, 25 of 25, because both teams are top five in the same poll. How close it looks, 15 of 25. Junior college has no power model, so that number is built from the poll gap and the records. Stakes, 16 of 20, ranked against ranked. Story, 10 of 15, a top-three clash of two teams the poll lists as unbeaten. Coverage, 10 of 15, because almost nobody is covering the game.

Quinderra Spellman coaches Louisburg. Don Jones coaches Hudson Valley. Hudson Valley’s official box score from its win at Nassau shows a team that takes the ball away and finishes drives: 233 total yards, 97 rushing, 136 passing, two defensive interceptions, and three scores in four red-zone trips. For Louisburg, neither school’s official pages produced a confirmed starting quarterback or a reliable player to watch, so TLP is not going to invent one. Home field is Troy. The forecast is sunny with a high near 66.

TLP’s lean is Louisburg, 28–21, with low confidence. Hudson Valley’s official schedule links a video feed called Vikings Broadcast Network. The price was not confirmed and no radio outlet was found, so check that link Saturday morning.

Youngstown State at Southern Illinois

Two quarterbacks who can beat you with their arms and their legs, one ball, one conference game.

No. 8 Youngstown State, 3–2 and 1–1 in the Missouri Valley, visits No. 21 Southern Illinois, 3–2 and 1–0, in the Stats Perform poll from Sept. 26. Kickoff is 5 p.m. Eastern, 4 p.m. Central, at Saluki Stadium in Carbondale, Illinois.

The TLP Watch Score: team quality, 25 of 25, No. 8 against No. 21. How close the models see it, 25 of 25, a margin inside three and a half points. Stakes, 16 of 20: both ranked, and a league game that moves both teams’ conference records, so a win makes Youngstown State 2–1 in the league and Southern Illinois 2–0. Story, 10 of 15: a reigning Walter Payton Award winner, Beau Brungard, in the building. Coverage, 10 of 15, because it streams on ESPN Plus instead of a broadcast network. That is 86, the highest score on this week’s board.

Doug Phillips is in his seventh season at Youngstown State and has built the offense around Brungard and a quarterback-run element. Nick Hill is Southern Illinois’ head coach and play-caller, and his official bio describes an Air Raid, spread, and up-tempo blend, now with a dual-threat quarterback. Published defensive schemes were not found, so TLP will not label them.

Brungard has completed 103 of 139 passes, 74.1 percent, for 1,216 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions in five games, and he has 88 carries for 461 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Tight end Alex McDonald has two touchdown catches. Defensive back Cam Smith has 32 tackles and an interception. Kicker Andrew Lastovka is 4-for-4 on field goals. For Southern Illinois, DJ Williams has thrown for 704 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions, and has 133 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns, in four games played. Chandler Chapman has 347 rushing yards on 74 carries. Kyle Thomas has 17 catches for 299 yards and three touchdowns, and he is the explosive-play threat to watch. Linebacker Andrew Behm has 37 tackles. (Stats are from each school’s stat book as of Sept. 26.)

Youngstown State leads the series 21–15–1, including a 48–38 win on Nov. 8 of last year. Saluki Stadium holds 15,000 and Southern Illinois is 1–0 at home. The Penguins make a long trip. The forecast is mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, high near 71. TLP’s lean is Youngstown State, 31–28, with low confidence.

It is on ESPN Plus. Radio is WCIL 101.5 FM, the Varsity Network and the Saluki app for Southern Illinois, and 570 WKBN and iHeartRadio for Youngstown State. Southern Illinois is offering two free children’s tickets, ages 12 and under, with an adult ticket for anyone who can make the game.

Alabama A&M vs. Jackson State: The Gulf Coast Challenge

A freshman running back, a four-game streak, and a classic in its ninth year.

Alabama A&M, 4–1 and 1–0 in the SWAC, meets unbeaten Jackson State, 4–0 and 1–0, at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. Kickoff is 5 p.m. Eastern, 4 p.m. Central, on SWAC TV. It is the 32nd meeting. Jackson State leads the series 19–12 and has won four straight, including 57–24 in last year’s Gulf Coast Challenge. This is the fifth straight season the two have played in the event.

The TLP Watch Score: team quality, 25 of 25, with Jackson State tied for No. 2 and Alabama A&M at No. 6 in the HBCU media poll. (Jackson State is also No. 23 in the AFCA FCS coaches poll.) How close the models see it, 8 of 25, because the model has Jackson State by about 16. Stakes, 20 of 20: both teams are 1–0 in the league, and Alabama A&M’s official preview says the winner gets an inside track in the SWAC East. Story, 10 of 15, a classic and a long series. Coverage, 15 of 15, two HBCU programs on a stage the national outlets do not cover.

Sam Shade coaches Alabama A&M. T.C. Taylor coaches Jackson State. Alabama A&M’s official preview names its keys: establish the run, protect the ball, and limit explosive plays. Detailed scheme labels were not published, so TLP will not add any.

Alabama A&M has won four straight, most recently 40–21 over Florida A&M. In that game freshman running back Byron Perrilliat rushed 16 times for 223 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Cornelious Brown IV threw three touchdown passes, two to Jaylan Bean, who had five catches for 93 yards. The defense held Florida A&M to 173 total yards and two on the ground, and linebacker DJ Barber had 14 tackles and a forced fumble. Jackson State beat Southern 35–17. Running back Nate Blount IV rushed 17 times for 135 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Jared Lockhart was 12-of-18 for 165 yards and two touchdowns and added a rushing score. Nate Rembert caught five passes for 87 yards, including a 70-yard touchdown. The defense had three sacks, and Jackson State scored on all four of its red-zone trips.

It is a neutral site, so there is no home field to lean on, and both teams played Sept. 26 and come in on seven days of rest. TLP’s lean is Jackson State, 31–27, with low-to-moderate confidence.

Alabama A&M’s audio is WJAB 90.9 FM. SWAC TV’s access terms were not confirmed, so check the listing on game day.

The Marquee Game

Florida at Missouri

71/100TLP Watch Score · FBS

25/25Team quality

25/25Closeness

16/20Stakes

5/15Story

0/15Coverage

The top game on the FBS board, and the one TLP is telling you to circle.

No. 8 Florida, 4–0 and 2–0 in the SEC, goes to Columbia to face No. 25 Missouri, 3–1 and 0–1 in the SEC, which is coming off its first loss, a comeback that fell short at Mississippi State. It is Homecoming in a renovated Memorial Stadium that holds 63,609 and reported its 21st straight sellout at the season opener. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. Eastern, 2:30 Central, on ABC.

The TLP Watch Score: team quality, 25 of 25, because both teams are in the AP Top 25. How close the models see it, 25 of 25, a margin of about three points. Stakes, 16 of 20: Florida is trying to stay unbeaten and stay 3–0 in the league, and Missouri is trying to avoid starting 0–2 in the SEC. Story, 5 of 15, for Homecoming. Coverage, 0 of 15, because ABC has it and everyone will find it. The next-best FBS game on the board, Penn State at Northwestern, scored 60 and is in the Honorable Mentions below.

What the PFF grades say

Florida’s season grades through its first four games, according to PFF, are 96.5 overall, 92.5 on offense, 93.0 in the run game, 90.7 on defense, 93.5 against the run, 89.1 in tackling, and 89.0 in coverage. Its special teams grade is 65.5. Missouri’s grades, game by game, according to PFF:

Missouri game	Overall	Offense	Pass block	Tackling	Coverage	Special teams
vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff	91.8	86.7	88.4	47.6	83.1	56.9
at Kansas	72.4	72.3	84.6	61.6	54.0	33.2
vs. Troy	86.3	62.5	83.7	56.6	77.3	60.4
at Mississippi State	77.8	71.9	86.9	68.1	61.3	69.2

The two sides

Florida is balanced, at 260 rushing and 272.8 passing yards a game, with a run game that PFF grades at 93.0. Missouri is more pass-leaning, at 155.8 rushing and 263 passing. Jon Sumrall’s Florida staff talks about aggression, explosive plays, and mixing tempos, and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner calls his system a versatile pro-style hybrid. Eliah Drinkwitz has a play-calling and offensive background, and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley brings a spread-oriented passing résumé. TLP will not put a base-front or coverage label on either defense because none was published.

For Florida, Jadan Baugh has a 91.9 offensive and 92.6 rushing grade, Duke Clark is at 85.7 offensive and 86.1 rushing, Vernell Brown III is at 87.8 offensive and 88.4 receiving, and quarterback Aaron Philo is at 81.3 offensive and 76.4 passing. For Missouri, quarterback Austin Simmons is at 83.0 offensive and 83.6 passing, receiver Cayden Lee is at 87.8 offensive and 88.6 receiving, Donovan Olugbode is at 70.4 offensive and 72.2 receiving, and Jamal Roberts is at 62.4 offensive.

The five keys

One: Florida has to establish Baugh and Clark without becoming predictable. Two: Missouri has to keep Simmons clean and efficient, and its pass blocking has graded at least 83.7 in every game TLP checked. Three: tackling can swing Homecoming, with Missouri’s weekly grades ranging from 47.6 to 68.1. Four: Florida’s coverage has to hold up against Lee and Olugbode. Five: hidden yards are volatile, and Missouri’s special teams have ranged from 33.2 to 69.2.

Availability

The initial SEC availability report lists Florida receivers Vernell Brown III (knee) and Bailey Stockton (back) as questionable. Missouri lists Langden Kitchen, Darris Smith, and Bobby Washington Jr. as questionable and JaDon Blair, Ahmad Hardy, Malae Fonoti, Josh Atkins, and Gavin Hoffman as out. These are initial reports and can change through the final pregame report.

The history

Missouri leads the series 7–6 and won the last meeting 33–31 in Columbia on Nov. 18, 2023. Both teams come in on seven days of rest. Florida makes a long interstate trip. Missouri is 2–0 at home.

TLP’s Pick

TLP's Pick

Florida, 38–31

Moderate confidence. Florida's run, tackling, and coverage profile is the edge. Missouri's quarterback and a Homecoming crowd keep the upset live. Watch first-down rushing efficiency, pressure without a blitz, Missouri's explosive passes to Lee and Olugbode, missed tackles, and special-teams field position.

How to watch

ABC, free over the air with an antenna where a local signal reaches. The ESPN app takes a TV provider login, and no free streaming trial was confirmed. Radio is the Gator Sports Network (WRUF 103.7 FM, 98.1 FM and 850 AM in Gainesville, and affiliates, plus SiriusXM 145) and the Tiger Radio Network, with the Varsity Network also carrying audio. The forecast is mostly sunny with a high near 69.

The Honorable Mentions — the next best at every level

Junior college — Dodge City at Northeastern Oklahoma A&M — 63 out of 100. No. 13 Dodge City, 3–2, visits unbeaten No. 5 Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, 5–0, in NJCAA Division I, according to Tuesday’s poll. It is the only ranked-against-ranked Division I game TLP found in the junior college slate. Saturday, 2 p.m. Eastern, 1 p.m. Central, at Red Robertson Field in Miami, Oklahoma. TV, streaming and radio were not confirmed, and no free option was found, so check the schools’ pages. Quarterback and player availability are also unconfirmed.

FCS — South Dakota State at Illinois State — 76 out of 100. No. 2 South Dakota State, 4–1 and 1–0 in the Missouri Valley, visits No. 10 Illinois State, 4–1 and 0–1, in the Stats Perform poll. Illinois State fell from No. 3 after its 28–21 loss at Northern Iowa. Saturday, 7 p.m. Eastern, 6 Central, at Hancock Stadium in Normal, Illinois, which holds 12,440, on ESPN Plus. South Dakota State runs for 302.4 yards a game, and Illinois State’s defense allows 88.6 on the ground. Illinois State converts 61.5 percent of its third downs. South Dakota State’s Chase Mason, who left the Sept. 19 win over Youngstown State at halftime with a leg injury, is sidelined, and South Dakota State’s official preview says Josh Holst is expected to make his second straight start. That is an expectation, not a final clearance. Holst is 15-of-34 for 270 yards and two touchdowns. Illinois State’s Gage Roy is 75-of-104 for 721 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions. South Dakota State leads the series 7–6, but Illinois State won last year 35–21. TLP’s lean is South Dakota State, 31–27, with low-to-moderate confidence. Radio is the Jackrabbit Sports Network, with free audio listed through Jackrabbits All Access, and WJBC 1230 AM and 102.1 FM, WJEZ 98.9 FM and the Varsity Network for Illinois State.

HBCU — Alcorn State at Grambling State — 76 out of 100. Grambling State’s Homecoming brings together two teams in the top 10 of the HBCU media poll: Alcorn State at No. 8 and Grambling State in a three-way tie at No. 10. Alcorn State beat Texas Southern 43–40 and has scored 53 and 43 in its last two wins. Grambling State is coming off a 21–14 loss to Prairie View A&M in the State Fair Classic. Saturday, 3 p.m. Eastern, 2 Central, at Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium in Grambling, Louisiana, on SWAC TV, with WPRL 91.7 FM for audio. SWAC TV’s access terms were not confirmed.

FBS — Penn State at Northwestern — 60 out of 100. The first game at the rebuilt Ryan Field comes exactly 100 years after the original stadium’s first game. Friday, Oct. 2, 8 p.m. Eastern, 7 Central, on FOX, with WGN Radio and the Penn State Sports Network for audio. Northwestern is 2–1 and stayed with No. 5 Indiana in a 29–23 game. Penn State brings eight takeaways, and its official notes rank its defense 12th nationally in takeaways. Penn State is 17–8–1 in Friday games and has won all three of its Friday-night Big Ten games. FOX is free over the air with an antenna where available, and Northwestern is offering $25 tickets, fees included, to eligible public servants, with restrictions.

FBS — Alabama at Mississippi State — 56 out of 100. A ranked SEC matchup at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi, where Mississippi State comes in off a 31–24 win over Missouri. Saturday, noon Eastern, 11 Central, on ABC, free over the air with an antenna where available. Alabama’s official game center lists quarterback Keelon Russell at 1,129 passing yards, Daniel Hill at 225 rushing yards, and Ryan Coleman-Williams at 333 receiving yards entering the game. Radio is the Crimson Tide Sports Network. Mississippi State’s radio listing and final availability were not confirmed.

The Week in One Line

Pick a game. Turn it on. See if the number was right.

Sources. PFF grades are from PFF’s 2026 data, filtered to NCAA, regular and postseason. Florida’s team grades are season grades through four games, from a Sept. 28 pull; Missouri’s team grades are single-game grades tied to the opponent in the table; player grades are as of Oct. 1. There is no comparable PFF team table for FCS, HBCU or junior college games, so those segments use official team and conference sources. Expected margins are power-model projections, not betting lines.

Other sources: each school’s game center, previews, schedule, and statistics pages; the AP Top 25 and Stats Perform FCS poll (Sept. 26); the NJCAA Division I and Division III polls (Sept. 29); the Sept. 29 BOXTOROW HBCU media poll; the SEC’s initial availability report; Alabama A&M’s official preview; Grambling State’s and Alcorn State’s official announcements; Hudson Valley’s official roster and schedule; the Louisburg directory; the Nassau box score; Penn State’s official game notes; the National Weather Service; and official event announcements from Florida. Broadcast, streaming, and radio details are as of Oct. 1, 2026. Verify all entitlements before kickoff.

Harry B. and TLP use AI to research and assist in the publication of this article. AI makes mistakes, so please check for yourself.